The French real estate market is going through a sequence that is difficult to read. After two years of marked correction in sales volumes, the recovery that began at the end of 2025 seemed to establish a more favorable cycle. Data from the first half of 2026 tells a more nuanced story: FNAIM anticipates a decline in sales of around 5 to 6% compared to 2025, with an estimate around 900,000 to 920,000 transactions in the existing market.
Prices, on the other hand, remain generally stable, around 2,994 euros per square meter as of June 1, 2026, according to the same source.
Mortgage Rates: The Spring 2026 Rise Changes the Game
The topic of rates concentrates a good part of the current tensions. After a period of calm where borrowers had regained more readable conditions, rates began to rise again in spring 2026. This increase complicates access to credit for a segment of buyers, particularly first-time buyers whose budgets struggle to absorb each additional tenth of a point.
The effect on transaction volumes is direct. When the cost of credit increases, some purchase projects stop before even signing the preliminary agreement. The current market operates like a selective filter where financing conditions determine the actual capacity of buyers to realize their project.
To follow these developments and access regular analyses on the sector, the Blog Introduction real estate site compiles resources and insights useful to project holders as well as investors.
Jeanbrun Law: The New Tax System for Rental Investment
The Pinel has disappeared. Its replacement, included in the 2026 finance law, is called Jeanbrun Law. The mechanism is different: it is no longer a tax reduction but a tax depreciation. The landlord can, under certain conditions, depreciate up to 80% of the acquisition price (excluding land) of a rented unfurnished property as a primary residence, for a minimum duration of nine years.
Depreciation rates vary according to the level of rent charged: intermediate, social, or very social. The deduction is applied to rental income, not to overall tax. This change in logic modifies the profile of targeted investors. The Pinel attracted taxpayers looking to reduce their income tax. The Jeanbrun Law is more aimed at landlords with existing rental income.
This system remains little covered in mainstream content. Field feedback varies on this point: some professionals believe the mechanism is too complex to attract individuals, while others see it as a relevant lever to revive rental supply in tight areas.
Real Estate Market 2026: Why FNAIM Talks About a Setback
The term is strong, but the federation stands by it. During its press conference in June 2026, FNAIM described a market that has not regained its cruising speed. Sales volumes are declining while prices are not falling enough to offset the rise in credit costs.
This situation creates a particular blockage for owners who bought between 2018 and 2022. With prices having fallen since their acquisition and rates having increased, selling would often mean a net loss. Many prefer to wait rather than realize a capital loss.
The result is a two-speed market. On one side, new or renovated properties find buyers within reasonable timeframes. On the other, part of the existing stock remains frozen, due to a lack of sellers willing to accept current prices.
Signals to Watch for the Second Half
- The evolution of the ECB’s key rates, which directly conditions the cost of mortgage credit in France and the borrowing capacity of households.
- The pace of implementation of the Jeanbrun Law by investors: if the depreciation request files remain marginal, the system could be revised as early as 2027.
- The volume of energy-inefficient properties reintroduced to the rental market. Since the ban on renting G-rated properties in 2025, several hundred thousand properties could re-enter the market after energy renovation work.
Real Estate Asset Management: What Cybersecurity Changes
This topic is hardly mentioned in almost any general real estate guide. However, it is becoming structural. The real estate sector handles considerable volumes of personal and financial data: diagnostics, bank statements, identity documents, management mandates. Cyberattacks targeting the sector are multiplying.
Several public institutions have recently been targeted by cyberattacks compromising personal data. For real estate professionals, property managers, and agents, the issue of data protection is becoming a selection criterion for clients.
Connected co-ownership (smart building) illustrates this tension. Digital tools promise more efficient management of buildings, but their deployment in residential areas remains slow. The available data does not allow for concluding that residential smart buildings will achieve massive adoption in the short term.
Rental Investment: Profitability and Placement Choices in 2026
Rental profitability depends on parameters that have all changed in two years. Rents remain upward-oriented in most metropolitan areas, but the cost of acquisition and the burden of credit are eating into margins. Real estate crowdfunding, long presented as an accessible alternative, is also going through a correction phase after several platform failures.
The criteria to examine before any rental investment remain technical:
- The net yield after tax, incorporating the new Jeanbrun depreciation regime if the property is eligible.
- The actual rental tension of the targeted area, measurable by the vacancy rate and the average re-rental time.
- The projected cost of energy renovation work, now crucial for maintaining a property on the rental market.
The real estate market in 2026 cannot be summed up as either a recovery or a crisis. FNAIM talks about a setback, rates are rising, and a new tax system is being quietly implemented. Each purchase or investment project requires a fine reading of local conditions, well beyond national averages.